The crises caused by the Iran war will hit the world in four waves

If tomorrow Iran, the United States and Israel were to announce a peace deal and the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, the war would not be over.

Wars do not end when the missiles stop flying. They end when the structural damage they inflict on the global trading system finishes working its way through prices, contracts, balance sheets and political legitimacy.

By that measure, the impact o...